October 29, 2004

How to Predict the Election Using Trusty Benchmarks

Pundits, Statisticians, and Talking Heads Plumb the Outcome

--Every time the Baltimore Colts have lost their last home game before a presidential election, the Democratic candidate has lost, unless Johnny Unitas was playing.

--On presidential election day in Barrington, Missouri, the Democratic candidate has always won if shortly after the polls open the ghost of Abner Barrington rings the bell in the steeple of Christ Our Savior Church. In 1918, when the bell at St. Paul's Roman Catholic Church inexplicably rang, the Democrat lost.

--If a lunar eclipse occurred after midnight Pacific time less than 72 hours before a presidential election and the eclipse coincided with high tide at Pt. Magoo, California, the Republican candidate lost if the United States was at war. The exception was the Korean War, which wasn't a war at all, but a United Nations police action.

--If a Seinfeld rerun broadcast on WTRX-TV in Altoona, Pennsylvania during the week before the election included an appearance by the Soup Nazi character, the Democrat won, except in 1928 when there was no television station.

--In any presidential election year when top wine critics described the new Beaujolais as "smoky and subtly arrogant with a touch of witty pretentiousness," the Democrat won. In those years when the critics declared the Beaujolais to be "resolute and assertively confident with a touch of blustery tannin," the Republican won.

--If Fat Gerald crapped out three times in a row in Uncle Blowfish's floating craps game under the Cross Bronx Expressway on the Sunday before a presidential election, the Democrat has always won. The one exception was 1968 when the cops raided the game, carted Fat Gerald off to the precinct house, and worked him over for "giving us too much lip."

--Every time the Boston Red Sox won the World Series in an election year, the Republican was elected.

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